Issued by NOAA CPC/NCEP/NWS on 14 May 2026.
Earth system simulation
El Nino probability simulator
Explore a WebGL model of equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature anomaly, trade-wind weakening, thermocline slope, Kelvin-wave propagation, and rainfall displacement. The probability panel is anchored to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion issued on 14 May 2026.
Official chance for El Nino during May-Jul 2026.
Official chance for Dec 2026-Feb 2027.
No individual strength category exceeded this probability.
Interactive WebGL lab
Equatorial Pacific coupling model
The scene compresses the tropical Pacific into one diagnostic view: western warm pool, central/eastern Pacific anomaly, wind stress, subsurface tilt, and the probability of El Nino occurrence.
Central/eastern Pacific anomaly response.
Positive values push toward westerly anomalies.
Eastern Pacific subsurface warm-water access.
Convective center follows warm water.
NOAA current and forecast state
Data driving the simulation
The page now separates official NOAA/CPC values from the browser visualization. Current state and probability come from CPC products; the WebGL ocean and India impact layers are educational projections built from those anchors.
CPC/NCEP/NWS ENSO Diagnostic Discussion.
El Nino Watch active.
Weekly observed anomaly cited in the discussion.
Eastern Pacific anomaly region.
Highest El Nino season probability in the CPC table.
Sentinel-6 thermal signal
2D Pacific thermal layer map
This 2D map follows the NASA/India Today Sentinel-6 story: a Kelvin wave of warm water moved east across the equatorial Pacific, with sea level near Peru about 15 cm above long-term average by mid-May. The orange-red layer is drawn over the map as a sea-height anomaly proxy for subsurface warmth.
Thermal layer
+5 cm +10 cm +15 cm or higher Warm water expands, raising sea surface height.
+5 cm +10 cm +15 cm or higher Warm water expands, raising sea surface height.
Atmospheric teleconnection
North America jet-stream impact cycle
The ocean heat signal is connected to winter weather through the jet streams. This layer follows the NOAA-style El Nino pattern: an extended subtropical Pacific storm track, a displaced polar jet, and probability-weighted wet, dry, warm, and cool impact zones.
Jet-stream cycle
Polar jet Subtropical Pacific storm track Wetter odds Drier odds Warmer odds Cooler odds
Polar jet Subtropical Pacific storm track Wetter odds Drier odds Warmer odds Cooler odds
Probability occurrence
Forecast probability, not certainty
The page separates occurrence probability from intensity. El Nino occurrence can be high while the peak strength category remains uncertain.
The CPC probability table rises from 82% in May-Jul 2026 to 98% through several autumn and early-winter windows, then 96% in Dec 2026-Feb 2027. The year slider continues through May 2027; months beyond the CPC table are visibly labeled as scenario extensions rather than official NOAA probability.
event risk = occurrence probability x impact sensitivity x regional exposure
India rainfall and hazard projection
OSM impact map
The map uses OpenStreetMap as the geographic base and NOAA ENSO probability as the climate driver. Zoom into the markers to inspect affected belts, rainfall-deficit occurrence values, drought, heat, flood/landslide, and cyclone-compounding signals. It is a teleconnection risk projection, not an IMD district forecast.
El Nino impact symbols
low watch high severe Droplet value = rainfall-deficit occurrence risk.
low watch high severe Droplet value = rainfall-deficit occurrence risk.
Physical model
What the visualization encodes
Sea-surface anomaly
Warm colors show positive Nino-region anomaly centered on the equator. The warm tongue expands eastward as the Nino-3.4 slider increases.
Trade winds
Normal easterlies pile warm water in the western Pacific. Weakened easterlies and westerly wind bursts let warm water and Kelvin waves propagate east.
Thermocline slope
During El Nino development the western/eastern thermocline contrast relaxes, allowing the eastern Pacific surface to warm more easily.
Rainfall displacement
Deep convection follows the warmest water. A mature El Nino shifts tropical rainfall eastward from the Maritime Continent toward the central/eastern Pacific.
Source and limits
Official data anchors
This page is an educational WebGL simulation. It is not an official NOAA forecast product and should not be used for operational climate decisions.
NOAA CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion
NOAA CPC ENSO Probabilities
NASA Sentinel-6 Kelvin wave report
14 May 2026, with the next discussion scheduled for 11 June 2026.
The discussion reported Nino-3.4 at +0.4 C while ENSO-neutral conditions still continued.
Mathematical model
Page model status
The WebGL layer uses bounded educational equations, not a coupled general circulation model.
Anomaly field
\[\Delta T(x,y,t) = A \cdot G_{eq}(y) \cdot G_{east}(x,W) + K(t)\]
The shader combines an equatorial Gaussian, an eastward warm-tongue envelope, and oscillating Kelvin-wave bands.
Wind response
\[\tau_x = \tau_{base} + W\]
The wind slider changes the visual stress field and the warm-water eastward displacement. It is a schematic coupling parameter.
Probability
\[P(El\ Nino | season) = CPC_{season}\]
The occurrence bars use the official May 2026 CPC season table; the visual ocean response remains an educational browser model.